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utahst/st.mary's (7** play) Utah St. will face a team from a stronger conference in St. Mary's as under dogs.  The only other time Utah State was an underdog this year they won outright.  I have the same feeling today as this St. Mary's team is not the same without their play maker Pat Mills.  Mills went out in the 1st half against their first match up with Gonzaga and the different was significant.  Too much passing not enough offense for St. Mary's.  Tonight they will be going against Utah State a team that is nationally ranked and has just as many wins as any team in the country.. I don't see the logic and opening them as 6.5 point under dogs.. and the line has come down from there with 54% on St. Mary's.  In the last 5 St. Mary's offense and defense has struggled. 44.7fg% defense and 43.5% from beyond the arch.  Utah State takes care of the ball and plays solid defense. They are 11-2ats in their last 13 road games and I see them hanging in this game and pulling the upset. Take Utah State +4.5 (7** play)<>

Niowa/Siena (5** play)  I love these Bracket Buster games you can always find value in certain lines... and here we find lots of value in my opinion.  Vegas is setting Northern Iowa as 6 point under dogs to open and this is because of their 7-0 road game start in their conference, but a closer look will show they are 0-3 in non-conference road games and 1-2 in their last 3 overall games in the MVC.  Northern Iowa is just not playing that great right now.  Siena is a dominant force at home undefeated this year and 15-1 in their conference.  They are +14.2 points at home and shooting 48.9% from the field.  While Northern Iowa has a solid defense I think they will struggle here today mainly because Siena is forcing 16.3 turnovers at home and they should give Siena plenty of easy baskets.  Take Siena -7 (5** play)<>

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